Is this myth true?

Domestika

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#1
Is it true that in order to predict a dog's adult weight you double their weight at 4 months?

Has this actually been true for anyone?

Cause my GSD is almost 4 months and she weighs 11kg...around 23 pounds. There is NO WAY she's going to be 46 pounds fully grown. I don't think there's ever been a purebred adult shepherd under 50 pounds, for a start. And her parents were both around 90 pounds sooooo, I'm guessing this myth is FALSE?

Shed some light, please?
 

Pam111

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#2
I have small dogs, so I'm not much help, I'm sure, but my dogs are close to that. Ash I know was 9 pounds when neutered at 4 months and is now 17 or so. Anna was around 5.5 pounds at 4 months and is now 10. I'm sure it can't be universally true since large dogs take longer to grow and some breeds are slower, etc.
 
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#3
Not sure they always work (and would not expect them to) but I have heard a few different "formulas" for predicting eventual adult size in GSD puppies.

One says double the 17 week weight for a male or the 15 week weight for a female.

Another formula says: At 8 weeks, a male GSD puppy of 20 pounds or more will be 100 lbs. or more as an adult. An eight week old female puppy of less than 15 pounds at 8 weeks will be about 55 - 60 lbs. as an adult. (But it seems crazy to try predicting adult size from any 8 week old puppy!)

Others aren't 'formulae' per se, but have also heard large paws indicate a larger adult and larger ears usually end up on a larger head which suggests a larger adult overall. Another of these is that although there may be exceptions, female GSDs tend toward the size of their litter's dam while males will tend toward size of their sire.

EDIT:
Cause my GSD is almost 4 months and she weighs 11kg...around 23 pounds. There is NO WAY she's going to be 46 pounds fully grown.
Nova's had digestive problems as a pup though, right? (Giardia or coccidia?) Even if "weight predictors" work at all it seems that would certainly throw off any estimates in her case.
 
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Domestika

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#4
Another formula says: At 8 weeks, a male GSD puppy of 20 pounds or more will be 100 lbs. or more as an adult. An eight week old female puppy of less than 15 pounds at 8 weeks will be about 55 - 60 lbs. as an adult. (But it seems crazy to try predicting adult size from any 8 week old puppy!)

Nova's had digestive problems as a pup though, right? (Giardia or coccidia?) Even if "weight predictors" work at all it seems that would certainly throw off any estimates in her case.
20 pounds at 8 weeks?? That's craziness. She wasn't even 10 pounds at 8 weeks! Though...I am starting to realise that she's very small for her age. I remembered back to our other GSD who was 42 pounds when we got him at 4 months... Nova will be 4 months in a bit over a week.

Yes, she does have some type of digestive problem. She recently tested positive for campylobacter so we're treating her for that. But it's unlikely that that is the only problem. More likely, she has some other underlying illness that just made it easier for the campylobacter to get out of hand. When we fix this bacterial imbalance we'll still be left with an underlying problem of some kind...is my guess.

I asked my vet if he thought having diarrhea for 6 weeks while she's in prime growing time would affect her size down the road and he said no. But...dang, she's seeming really tiny now. :/ It's becoming very obviously that she is just a sickly dog. She has rashes, ear infections, allergies all in addition to her stomach upset so I don't hold out a lot of hope for her being a big, healthy girl as she matures. Unfortunately.
 

bnwalker2

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#5
So far that theory has worked with all of my dogs. Thunder (German Shepherd) was just under 30 pounds at 4 months old and is now 57 pounds at 6 years old. Scooter was 20 pounds at 4 months old and is 40 pounds now at almost 2 years. All of my other dogs have been pretty close to double their 4 month weight as well.
 
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#6
Don't know about that formula, but 55lbs is still standard for a female GSD. I was just at a wedding this weekend with two of my females, 58 and 63 pounds and everyone thought they were so tiny, then again, none of them could believe how fast and agile they were either. We're so used to seeing huge out of standard dogs tha when some come along that are what was intended people can't believe it. 90lbs is far too big for a female, and 88lbs is supposed to be the max for males, but a little give and take on the weight is OK, but if you're much over 90lbs, that is too big for my taste.
 

Domestika

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#7
Don't know about that formula, but 55lbs is still standard for a female GSD. I was just at a wedding this weekend with two of my females, 58 and 63 pounds and everyone thought they were so tiny, then again, none of them could believe how fast and agile they were either. We're so used to seeing huge out of standard dogs tha when some come along that are what was intended people can't believe it. 90lbs is far too big for a female, and 88lbs is supposed to be the max for males, but a little give and take on the weight is OK, but if you're much over 90lbs, that is too big for my taste.
I would normally agree... But my breeder breeds very healthy (and large) working dogs. Schutzhund, Search and Rescue, some of her dogs have gone into the RCMP, etc. So their size doesn't hinder them and they certainly aren't unhealthy or disadvantaged by their extra bulk.

If they were huge and couldn't perform the tasks the breed is meant to be able to perform then I would for sure say that's inappropriate. But if both large and small Shepherds can do the same things, it comes down to an aesthetic. I personally prefer larger Shepherds...though I will admit that our 92 pound male (from the same breeder - 11 years old now) is too big for my taste. He's just an enormous dog.

Though I would find it odd if a 85 pound female and 90 pound male produced a [less than] 50 pound female, which mine is gearing up to be. That's a head scratcher.
 
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#8
20 pounds at 8 weeks?? That's craziness. She wasn't even 10 pounds at 8 weeks!
LOL ... my first thought too, it's how I heard that particular formula though. Still think it's nuts to try to judge from 8 wks. old. But from other posts it does seem the 4 month theory may have some vailidity. Interesting. :)

We're so used to seeing huge out of standard dogs tha when some come along that are what was intended people can't believe it. 90lbs is far too big for a female, and 88lbs is supposed to be the max for males, but a little give and take on the weight is OK, but if you're much over 90lbs, that is too big for my taste.
Agreed. There are out-sized GSDs being bred ... on purpose just for increased size. Another problem lately is far too much angulation of hind quarters, to the point some look unbalanced. It's as if some breeders think "if a little is good, then more will always be better" ... and so they go overboard. It's pretty sad ... I don't thinkk it's helping the breed overalll.

Yes, she does have some type of digestive problem. She recently tested positive for campylobacter so we're treating her for that. But it's unlikely that that is the only problem. More likely, she has some other underlying illness that just made it easier for the campylobacter to get out of hand. When we fix this bacterial imbalance we'll still be left with an underlying problem of some kind...is my guess.
The more details you post regarding this, the more I begin thinking it may be something else? Mental stress causes gut bacteria overgrowth in a dog, whether the particular bacteria belong there or not. Saw another one of your threads recently ... regarding Nova jumping on other dog's heads and licking them. :) You thought perhaps "dominance" but I tend to agree with the replies that it's over-playfulness. Wondering if perhaps Nova does not have some mysterious underlying illness but just feels stressed for some reason?

The rashes, ear infections and allergies also suggest stress, to me at least. Sounds like perhaps yeast overgrowth, also affected (at least in part) by stress. (Some amount of yeast on skin is normal .. overgrowth suggests some form of stress, whether physical or mental.)

Allergies are from an over-active immune system ... also negatively affected by stress. I realize you have had bite-inhibition problems with her, but I'm begininng to believe that Nova is not "dominant" and "hard-headed" ... but perhaps actually has a "softer" personality. (That wouldn't be a bad thing ... "softer" personality GSDs grow to be very reliable adults, steadfast but still gentle!) Bite-inhibition problems can also come from over-playfulness combined with nervousness from stress. Maybe work on extra bonding? (i.e, minimizing stress ...soft voice, no yelling. Sit quietly with her while she chews a bone and you hold the other end of the bone, hand-feeding, etc.? )
 
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#9
I breed German Shepherds from Germany. The size has alot to do with the parents also. How much you feed and grow out your puppy. I never tested any of mine this way, I just watch them grow at a safe rate and if too fast I cut back on feed and more exercise they are given.

You do not want a fast growth on this breed. Females should weigh from 65 lbs to not over 70 lbs. Males from 71lbs to 90lb. I never breed to 100 lb males or females for that matter. I follow the SV rules from Germany as they know this wonderful breed more than any other.
 

Gempress

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#11
I think she's going to be on the petite side of the GSD spectrum. If she's 23 pounds at 4 months old, I seriously doubt she's going to hit anywhere near 90 pounds. Voodoo was about 4 months old when we found him. He was 30 pounds (and was actually underweight), and has matured to 70. Our golden retreiver was 16 pounds at 8 weeks old, and she grew to about 80 lbs.

I'm guessing your girl will be 50-55 pounds when mature.
 

Domestika

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#12
I'm guessing your girl will be 50-55 pounds when mature.
I can't even imagine what a 50 pound Shepherd would look like... To me, that's miniature size because I'm so used to our ginormous male Shepherd, I guess. It still seems weird to me that 80+ pound dogs can have 50 pound offspring... Weird.
 
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#13
I can't even imagine what a 50 pound Shepherd would look like... To me, that's miniature size because I'm so used to our ginormous male Shepherd, I guess. It still seems weird to me that 80+ pound dogs can have 50 pound offspring... Weird.
Maybe what you're used to seeing is out-sized out of standard GSDs? I recall upon first hearing of the 8 week puppy formula, i.e. an 8 wk. male pup at 20 lbs. or over will be 100 lbs or more ... my first reaction was "since when are GSDs 100 lbs. and over?!?!" :)

Check out this comparison page from Canada's Guide to Dogs for the GSD. It lists comparisons between kennel clubs for different countries. Scroll down to "Size". An excerpt from the CKC section:
Weights of dogs of desirable size in proper flesh and condition average between 75 and 85 lb. (34 and 39 kg); and of bitches, between 60 and 70 lb. (27 and 32 kg)
Here's the site:
http://www.canadasguidetodogs.com/germanshepherd/germansheparticle4.htm
 

Domestika

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#14
The more details you post regarding this, the more I begin thinking it may be something else? [...] Wondering if perhaps Nova does not have some mysterious underlying illness but just feels stressed for some reason?

The rashes, ear infections and allergies also suggest stress, to me at least. I realize you have had bite-inhibition problems with her, but I'm begininng to believe that Nova is not "dominant" and "hard-headed" ... but perhaps actually has a "softer" personality [...] Bite-inhibition problems can also come from over-playfulness combined with nervousness from stress.

Maybe work on extra bonding? (i.e, minimizing stress ...soft voice, no yelling. Sit quietly with her while she chews a bone and you hold the other end of the bone, hand-feeding, etc.? )
I have considered that stress may have contributed to her poor health, but I don't believe it is the cause for it. I believe she has probably been sick from day one. She was certainly skinny when I saw her at 4 weeks, and then even more obviously so at 6 weeks. She had a very poor body condition when I got her at 8 weeks and I'm inclined to believe that she has probably never been healthy, with or without her "stressful" environment here.

I do, though, believe that stress can be an inborn trait. Certainly there are people who are just at a higher stress level, even in the absence of outside stressors. It may be the case that she is "stressed" in this way. Her environment here is very calm. I knew virtually from the start that she was a dog who would get VERY aggitated in even mildly stressful situations so I have worked to make here environment here very relaxed. I do speak to her very calmly, pet her gently and spend time doting on her quietly when she's in a mellow mood. And I do my best (with my trainer's help) to try to minimize the situations that potentially would be stressful for her.

So if her poor health is stress related, there's little more I could do to ease her troubles. If she's a stressed girl, she's a stressed girl. The best I can do is be sensitive to it and work with her in the way that she's most comfortable. HOWEVER, I will say that both of the trainers in our puppy class, as well as the private trainer we have (they are not affiliated with one another) have commented on her...let's say, confidence. She is playful, of course, and seems unsure sometimes about how to act. But she's also pretty bossy and doesn't take direction from dogs or people particularly well. Hence having a tendency to be a little bit dominant and fairly head strong.
 

Domestika

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#15
10 pounds under the minimum would still be fairly odd...

I am used to seeing larger Shepherds. And I expected to have a larger Shepherd since the parents' were large. That's the part that's confusing to me. Sure, the parents are outside of the "normal" size range for the breed...but they still shouldn't be producing offspring almost half their size.

I don't mind having a smaller dog. That's not the issue. In fact, it would make it a lot easier in a lot of ways. A Shepherd was never meant to be my larger breed dog anyway. My husband is SET on a Newfoundlander... (sigh). And I've becoming slightly partial to Great Danes after seeing so many at work.. Though...that in itself should be a good indication to NOT get one! :D

We have a 180 pound mammoth at the hospital right now and...pardon me, that is just too much dog. ...particularly considering IT ISN'T LEASH TRAINED.
 

lizzybeth727

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#16
Considering that she's been sickly and small since the first time you saw her, at 4 weeks old, it's no suprise that she will probably be a small adult dog. I just don't see how a dog that's been sick her entire life would be expected to grow as big as dogs who have been perfectly healthy their entire lives.
 
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#17
My husband is SET on a Newfoundlander... (sigh).
Ohhhh ... but they are sooo sweet. :) I love the Newfie temperament but don't much like slobber.
And I've becoming slightly partial to Great Danes after seeing so many at work.
Guess you could say I had the best of both worlds .... one of my dogs, King, (rescue dog) was a GSD/Dane mix. :)
He looked liked an extremely out-sized GSD, except for the Dane paws and his forelegs were set slightly wider than a GSD. But everyone thought he was a HUGE GSD until I told them he was a mix. Wonderful dog ... but poor baby got the health probs from both sides. He developed degenerative myelopathy and bone cancer. :(
We have a 180 pound mammoth at the hospital right now and...pardon me, that is just too much dog. ...particularly considering IT ISN'T LEASH TRAINED.
:yikes:
 

Domestika

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#18
Considering that she's been sickly and small since the first time you saw her, at 4 weeks old, it's no suprise that she will probably be a small adult dog. I just don't see how a dog that's been sick her entire life would be expected to grow as big as dogs who have been perfectly healthy their entire lives.
Well, I've been asking my vet all along "are her health problems going to affect her growth? Is she going to be stunted because she's malnourished" and he was quite sure she would be fine and that she was growing and her body conditioning was improving. I didn't think much of it until I realized she's nearly 4 months and still quite small for her breed.
 

Domestika

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#19
Ohhhh ... but they are sooo sweet. :) I love the Newfie temperament but don't much like slobber.
We actually had a Newfie at the hospital the other day and...geeeez, he was horrible. He was an adult, but he cried and cried and barked and barked the ENTIRE time he was there. And he had NO manners. He'd barge out over top of you and pull you around and didn't listen at all. He was NOT the mellow Newfie I am used to. Honestly...he was more like a Weimeraner in a Newfoundlander's body.
 

ihartgonzo

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#20
Fozzie didn't weigh too much less than Nova at 4 months... I think he was a little under 20 lbs at that point. But, then again, German Shepherds are prone to grow until they're 1+ years old.

I would keep a close eye on how lean she is. It's good to have a lean puppy, but an emaciated puppy is not a good thing, and a lack of nutrients REALLY can effect a puppy for life. A friend's BC mix puppy had Pancreatitis from 6 months of age and possibly before that, with constant diarrhea, who wasn't treated until she was 1 year old. Her structure is very "off", she looks drastically different from her siblings, and her coat is sparse and coarse. I'm fairly positive that the lack of nutrients that she could get while untreated for Pancreatitis effected her life-long structure and appearance forever. It is pretty serious.

What kind of food is Nova on? Personally... I would get her on Raw. It might not help, but it could help tremendously. I know that being on Raw, and detoxing all of the garbage from his system, completely changed Gonzo. He went from vomiting on a daily basis when ever he exercised or it was hot, and having a painfully sensitive tummy, and being slightly overweight and in generally medicore condition for all of his life - to having a bombproof tummy, no digestive issues whatsoever, and in perfect body condition. I have seen it work wonders with other dogs, as well!
 

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